Who Should Start for the Miami Heat & Other Lineup Stuff

So, with the team looking pretty much set, at least for now, let’s look at all what their starting lineup should be, what their options are, and some other lineup questions.

The first major question, as it always has been with the Heat, is health. That will determine a lot when it comes to their regular starting five and their rotations.

Here are the number of starting fives they had over the years and their most common one

• 2024: 35 & Adebayo/Butler/Jovic/Robinson/Rozier in 14 games
• 2023: 26 & Adebayo/Butler/Herro/Lowry/Martin in 21 games
• 2022: 23 & Adebayo/Butler/Lowry/Robinson/Tucker in 30 games
• 2021: 26 & Adebayo/Butler/Nunn/Olynyk/Robinson in 16 games
• 2020: 15 & Adebayo/Butler/Leonard/Nunn/Robinson in 38 games

They just had the most starting lineups in the last five years(with 9 more than the previous high) and their most common lineup was also used the least. This is where I can see the point about wanting this team to be healthy because even by their standard, it’s been bad.

I went through more lineup data here, where I dug deeper into how many 5-man lineups they had with certain qualifiers and how good they were.

But to show how bad things were this year:

• 4 lineups with 10 games played(only 1 of those lineups played 50+ minutes)
• 2 lineups with 100+ minutes
• 8 lineups with 50+ minutes(4 included Kyle Lowry)
• Of those 8 lineups, 4 had positive net rating per 100(+4.6, +11.0, +9.1, +0.8) & 3 of them included Lowry
• Most used lineup: Rozier/Duncan/Butler/Jovic/Bam were -6.3 in 181 minutes in 14 games

And this is how it was in previous years:

It’s clear that this needs to improve. This is the first thing that needs to change because you can’t have a good team without any continuity.

Assuming they’ll be healthy, what should be their starting lineup, other key lineups and general rotation?

I think for the most part, four players are locked in: Terry Rozier, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, and Bam Adebayo. They need to be the ones starting and I don’t see much of a reason why they shouldn’t be.

The last spot is where I(and many others) would probably rather see Duncan Robinson slot in there, but in the end, it will be Tyler Herro. And that will most likely be the starting five.

I’ve seen some takes that it should be Ware but that likely shouldn’t and won’t be the case because it’s too soon for that. There’s also been tweets on my timeline calling for Rozier to be off the bench. I don’t think they sent a first round pick for a backup guard. Jaime Jaquez Jr also has a case, but I just don’t see why there would be a strong need to take him out of the role that he was good in and fits better with those combinations.

Be cautious that all of these stats are small sample and for the most part had Butler be in a lower, limited usage

So, let’s dive into the starting 5 of Rozier, Herro, Butler, Jovic, Adebayo.

Speaking of small samples, that lineup above played a whopping 0 minutes together. Instead of Jovic, it has been Haywood Highsmith, Caleb Martin, or Jaquez. For now, let’s only look at those four players only:

• -1.3 in 118 minutes
• 117.9 ORTG — 57.2% eFG, 60.5% TS, 52.9% 2pt, 43.0% 3pt
• 119.2 DRTG — 60.2% eFG, 61.7% TS, 58.6% 2pt, 41.5% 3pt

Player stats:

The first immediate stat that pops out is Butler has the lowest usage here with 19.1% out of those four, and yet somehow is still leading them in points per 100. That’s mainly because of the absurd efficiency with 65.2% eFG and 71.7% TS.

Another stat that is encouraging is from Herro. That 60.7% 3pt rate is something he’s never ever been close to. That’s the kind of shot profile that he needs to have — I talked about this in last week’s report! With this lineup, he’s taking 14.2 3s per 100, which would rank 5th in the league behind only Klay Thompson, Donte DiVincenzo, Sam Merrill, and Stephen Curry.

Although this 4-man lineup did have a high offensive rating, it’s quite glaring that they only had 14% of their shots at the rim. Barely 13 shots per 100 being there. Their most common shot was in the short mid-range(4–14ft) where they shot 47.5%. Relying on those kind of those shots and 3pt shooting doesn’t feel ideal. But they did have a ridiculous corner frequency with 16%.

But this is still a very, very limited sample size to take anything away from. The only thing you can do is try to look at things in a vacuum and try to predict how things could work.

One question comes up with how it could work is that backcourt. Despite Herro’s high 3pt rate and better shot diet, both he and Rozier still combine for almost 20 shots per 100 from inside the arc, but are shooting 44%. Hopefully, that does decrease with a more engaged Butler.

When it comes to the last player, I don’t see anyone else fit that better than Jovic. He would be replacing Martin or Highsmith that were in those lineups. The first thing he’s gonna help with is that shooting. Jovic for the season averaged over 9 3s per 100 and shot quite well. If that shooting continues to be a thing, that fits perfectly with what this group needs.

Defensively, they were horrid in these lineups. I don’t know what happened with that team in that short stretch after acquiring Rozier where they kind of fell off defensively before flipping the switch again. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was more a blip and small sample because that wasn’t the case later in the season.

This will likely be the starting lineup and there is potential for this to work out given all the pieces are in the right spot.

That means Butler taking control and not having usage lower than guys like Michael Porter Jr, Austin Reaves, Norman Powell, Tim Hardaway Jr, Coby White, or Josh Giddey. A lot of these lineups need to have a simple disclaimer of “should be better if Butler simply plays like the best player on the team”.

It also means one of Rozier or Herro embracing a role more off-ball, more 3pt oriented, upping their catch and shoot volume, and cutting down on possessions with them handling the ball as much. I just don’t see how it could work with two inefficient on-ball players that are similarly trying to play the same role. Someone has to sacrifice and adapt.

All of this can work. It will certainly take time to adjust and there is a need to adjust even if you consider Butler playing engaged because the trio of Butler, Adebayo, and Herro haven’t exactly fitted together perfectly.

That’s why I also think that the same lineup but with Robinson instead should be the starters. Those five were:

• -6.3 in 181 minutes
• 111.7 ORTG — 56.0% eFG, 58.5% TS, 52.8% 2pt, 40.8% 3pt
• 118.0 DRTG — 57.2% eFG, 59.2% TS, 58.8% 2pt, 36.6% 3pt

Player stats:

Again, similar thing here as before. Butler with a much lower usage than he should have. The best player shouldn’t have be in the low 20% and that changes a lot and can easily skew these lineup data.

For one, they do have a low offensive rating here, but here, the guy that leads them in usage is Adebayo, who is shooting sub 50% from 2pt and has an awful 52.5% TS. No wonder the offense is struggling.

But when looking at the rest of the team’s shot profile, how others are getting their shots, it looks more promising. Compared to the previous 4, this lineup has a 25% of their shots at the rim, with over 22 shots there. They also aren’t relying on their paint shots as much either with only 26 shots there. And they still generate a good amount of corner 3s with that being 13% of their shots.

I like this lineup the most mainly because of Robinson and the skillset he provides. He’s one of the best off-ball players in the league. He’s a top 5 shooter. He’s willing to do it. He has accepted that role. He has improved beyond being just a specialist. And all of that makes the fit easier with someone like Rozier. Why would we need Herro to adapt his game to be someone like the player we already have on the bench who has proved to be a starter too?

I mentioned Herro’s 3pt rate being much better and Robinson’s is even higher at 77%! And that’s exactly what that group needs. They need high volume 3pt shooters that are elite off-ball. That has been a proven thing that works for them.

And this isn’t a small sample size either. In each season, these 3–4–5 man lineups all together do a better job when it is a player like Robinson, Max Strus, or Gabe Vincent.

The two things that will matter the most then is of course Butler but also Rozier adapting his game. Similar to the issues with Herro’s shot diet and efficiency, that also applies to him. With this lineup, he only has a 33% 3pt rate, but he has proved throughout his career to also be a great catch-and-shoot guy. It’s literally the same issues as with Herro.

Although Rozier is far from being Goran Dragic, that is the closest thing that they had to him. Plus, they made it work with Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry(after his decline) enough that this should work better despite some of Rozier’s inefficiencies. I also wish he’d adjust the game in a similar way that Herro should. That, combined with everything else could make these lineups work a lot better.

That’s the 2 starting lineups that I only see being up there.

So, let’s get into some other lineups, duos, and trios that I want to see more of(or less of).

Here are some of the main ones, best, or most used:

• Butler & no Herro/Adebayo: +9.7 in 778 minutes with 122.0 ORTG
• Herro/Adebayo & no Butler: +0.2 in 541 minutes with 112.7 ORTG
• Butler/Love: +9.0 in 536 minutes with 119.9 ORTG
• Rozier/Butler/Adebayo: +3.8 in 518 minutes with 116.6 ORTG
• Butler/Herro/Adebayo: +2.8 in 499 minutes with 115.4 ORTG
• Duncan/Rozier: -6.0 in 457 minutes with 108.3 ORTG
• Herro/Duncan: -2.8 in 429 minutes with 115.1 ORTG
• Butler/Jovic/Adebayo: +10.8 in 396 minutes with 118.7 ORTG
• Butler/Love/Jaquez: +17.3 in 365 minutes with 125.4 ORTG
• Butler/Highsmith/Adebayo: +8.9 in 341 minutes with 117.2 ORTG
• Adebayo/Rozier & no Butler: -6.8 in 282 minutes with 103.5 ORTG
• Herro/Rozier: -2.8 in 188 minutes with 119.2 ORTG
• Butler/Jaquez/Adebayo: +4.7 in 157 minutes with 115.3 ORTG

Let’s start with the most fun lineups and that’s anything with Butler and Love, especially when they have Jaquez too. That’s where they have an absurd 125.4 ORTG.

The big reason why is it’s Butler surrounded by shooters and smart off-ball players. Butler does have a 28.9% usage here and has a 58.5% eFG and 68.6% TS. He’s getting to the line at will, averaging 16.2 free throws per 100. He makes Joel Embiid look like an ethical hooper.

Give Butler more spacing!

I would love Jovic with that trio too(he only played six minutes with them). A 5-man lineup of Butler/Jaquez/Duncan/Jovic/Love is just an absurd offensive firepower.

Staying on with the Butler lineups, Butler without either Adebayo or Herro has worked a lot and the simplest explanation is that Butler plays more aggressively. Without those two, he’s averaging 26.7 points per 75 possessions on 61.3% TS. He has a 27.9% usage. That’s what you typically see from the team’s best player. When he doesn’t have the usual help, he does step up. It’s this Butler that needs to be more consistent.

On the inverse, either the Herro-Adebayo & Rozier-Adebayo but no Butler lineups need to be a lot better offensively. The former has a 112.7 ORTG and the latter has a disgusting 103.5.

That’s on those 3 players to be better as on-ball players.

Rozier is averaging 16.8 points on 39.8% eFG & 43.5% TS with 25.1% usage. Herro is averaging 22.3 points on 48.9% eFG & 51.8% TS with 27.5% usage. That just can’t be happen.

I don’t think it’s asking for a lot for your guards to play better than have way below efficiency with high usage when asked to in limited minutes without the best player.

If the Heat continue to fall off the cliff offensively without Butler, then that’s a huge issue.

When it comes to the overall rotation, the top 7 are guaranteed locks to have minutes — Butler, Adebayo, Rozier, Robinson, Herro, Jaquez, Jovic. I don’t think their minutes depends on matchups or how they’ve been playing in a stretch.

Next comes Love and Highsmith that should be the next guys up(trying to limit Love due to age). There has to be minutes found for Love even if it’s slightly lower than last year. There also has to be some place for Highsmith, as he is their best perimeter defender at this point.

Then there still needs to be minutes sorted to Alec Burks, Josh Richardson, and Ware. That would make it 12 players that I think should get some kind of minutes.

It will be interesting to see who will get pushed out, but that will surely be fluid throughout the year.