The Heat Report: Bam with USAB, Herro’s Role & Grading the Off-Season

Welcome to The Heat Report(name maybe still in progress)! A weekly, semi-regular thoughts, discussion & analysis of the Miami Heat. This is the place for you to get up to speed with everything that’s important, interesting, or simply fun — whether that’s news, specific games, box-scores, actions, plays, signings, trades, trends, financials, schemes — and digging deeper into the how’s and why’s through film breakdowns, stats, and analysis.

Bam’s Minutes with USAB

So, last week I had a conversation around Bam Adebayo’s position and all of the talk about moving him to the “4”. That conversation was emphasized because of the role he’s playing with team USA for the Olympics. Seeing as he does play with Anthony Davis, he is playing with another big.

That immediately made people think about how that can translate with the Miami Heat and how perhaps they can play Adebayo and Kel’el Ware together.

That’s why I rewatched all of the offensive possessions from Adebayo with USA to see exactly how he was being used, what role he played in, and where he was placed on the court.

These are rough numbers and there may be some overlap with each other but this was the general distribution of where he was spaced and how he was used.:

• Weakside dunker spot: 19
• Strongside dunker spot: 10 times
• Weakside corner: 10
• Strongside corner: 10
• PNR: 10
• Post: 7
• Wing: 6
• Hub/Delay/bringing the ball: 4

One thing immediately stands out. He’s still being used primarily inside the arc in the dunker spot. The way he’s used off-ball still resembles what a typical big would do. This still isn’t what you’d hope or need to play him with another big.

Here’s a full breakdown of each way he was being used and some key possessions that stood out the most.

Let’s start with his on-ball play and when he was directly being used in actions. That stayed fairly the same.

His main of creating shots for himself or others was in the post, particularly to attack mismatches. In three of the post ups, he did immediately draw help and a double, where he was able to make the correct read. When he was scoring, it was the usual mid-range, post, isolation-heavy offense.

He has still been used fairly frequently as a screener, but what’s interesting to see is what he does after he screens. He’s been popping more or rolling then flaring out to the 3pt line. It was only a handful of possessions where he did roll hard to the basket. There were a couple of double-drag screens with him as the first screener and he made an immediate effort to pop for 3pt.

That was different and it’s the first step in making himself more versatile as a screener. Adding that pop threat from 3pt is going to be big. Anytime you add a new element to your game, it can open up other things, so it’s good to see Adebayo looking to do so at a higher volume

They also mixed in a few possessions with him bringing up the ball, being a hub at the elbow, or being used in delay actions.

What was more important to watch out for was how and where was he used off-ball. What was he doing when he wasn’t involved in actions directly that is the most important thing when it comes to his ability and effectiveness to play with other bigs. His off-ball play is what will determine that.

And that’s where I still don’t see the vision as it currently stands. Honestly, none of what he’s shown makes me think this is going to be viable just yet. It’s certainly steps in the right direction and there is clear progress, but if the goal is to do so right away, then they’re still far from it.

Around 20-ish possessions, he was being placed in either strong or weak side corners. That’s a start. That’s good to have him even in those positions. Now, he didn’t have the chance to take a lot of 3s but that’s more on him just not getting the ball to even allow him to.

But one thing that stood out when he was in the corners is that he was still looking to cut inside or just hovered between the dunker spot and the corner. It still felt like there was a decision to not have him to be fully committed to being a spacer. There were instances where that made sense where the defense wasn’t looking or to crash the glass, but that happened a lot of the time too. Another thing that I did like a lot was him looking to screen guys with those pin-in screens to get them wide open looks for 3pt.

Combine that habit and him being placed in the dunker spot for over 30 possessions, I still came away seeing that he was being used as a big on offense. Being a spacer doesn’t mean you can’t have any possessions in the dunker spot or simply inside the arc, but it does mean you can’t have most of your possessions there. More than half of his off-ball possessions came with him in the dunker spot, being a step inside the arc, cutting into the paint, relocating inside, and looking for dumpoffs or sealing guys off.

All of that doesn’t give me much hope that this is going to change much during the season. There has been clear signs where he is popping more willingly and is at least looking to make some of those off ball movements around the arc. But that’s a step to being a spacing “big”. That’s still not what you’d want from a wing in 2024.

But this is also something that we didn’t even have a year ago. That’s why this is still all positive. I wouldn’t say that this would allow them to change the lineup construction but it does make their current one much better because we’re still at level zero when it comes to being a spacing threat. When you’re starting from 0 attempts and being a legit non-threat from outside, then even being a PJ Tucker is going to add some impact. If he at least pops 2–3 times for 3pt and takes those, that’s still better than never popping.

Herro’s Efficiency & Role

So, Locked on Heat had an episode on “Which players besides Adebayo will see their role change next season?” and they talked about how an engaged Jimmy Butler will help Tyler Herro play a more efficient role:

But I don’t know how much I can agree with that because it shifts the blame or responsibility on other players when Herro is the only one who can change his approach, be more efficient, and be more impactful in his role. What Butler does or what Adebayo does, doesn’t have that much weight in what Herro does in a way.

I would agree that a less engaged Butler does force players to play above what they should do. It definitely does change things for players, but I don’t know if it’s to that extent, especially when Herro was never at league-average efficiency. Are we then saying that Butler was never engaged? Was Herro never in the right role that maximizes him? But what about guys like Duncan Robinson who still find ways to be efficient despite not having an engaged Butler?

A lot of Herro’s inefficiencies are because of his approach and what that does require to have him maximized.

People say they want him to be in the 6th man role again, but what exactly does that mean? Because to me it’s being used in the exact same way, just at a lesser volume(that’s in an ideal scenario because even in his 2022 season, he was taking over 17 shots a game).

The way you maximize his current role and what he should play like given his strengths are two different things to me. The solution to his play isn’t simply to have more engaged players or have him on the bench. It’s changing his game.

Let’s just look at some of the tracking stats to gauge his touches, usage, and shot distribution over the years:

This is not what his stats should look like based what he’s good at. All of it is around the same in each year when the team was either good, had a point guard, had engaged Butler, had “point” Butler, had disengaged Butler, had Herro off the bench, or had Herro starting. In every possible context, his shot distribution and touches are relatively the same(outside of his rookie season). That’s where I don’t see how he was pushed into that role not willingly. I still think the reason for these stats is that Spoelstra and the team still think he IS the guy that warrants these touches.

But even if you wanted to argue that he is, there are still plenty of inefficiencies there. There’s not a single season where he takes more pull up 3s than pull up 2s. That’s a big reason why he’s inefficient. That kind of shot diet will result in that.

I talked about CJ McCollum’s efficiency recently, and the biggest change he did was simply take more 3s off the bounce than pull up 2s and become more off-ball.

And McCollum is a much, much better shooter from 2 than Herro and his impact was made better with this slight adjustment. It is a small, very realistic adjustment for Herro and that can easily change so much for him and the team, that’s if you consider him to still be more of an on-ball option. Though, there’s still only so much a player can do without being able to consistently attack off the dribble, blow by defenders, provide rim pressure, and draw fouls. “That” is a requirement in 99.9% cases to be an impactful offensive player on-ball. But it is still possible, as seen with McCollum, that you can be more efficient with slight adjustments to shot diet.

But my main issue is still with how he’s being used in each season. There shouldn’t be a case for him to have such high time of possession. There shouldn’t be a case where he has his catch and shoot frequency so low. That’s the role he needs to change.

Even in his 6MOTY season, that was the most on-ball he was. That was the lowest frequency off the catch, most pull up 2s. That’s definitely not the role I’d want him in. That’s not a role that he can have any high impact in. That’s where I don’t get the conversation that all they need to do is send him back to bench because that was still part of an issue. His playstyle is simply inefficient. He needs the ball in his to be maximised and that makes the lineup constructions harder.

This is again where this team can have the best Jimmy Butler and I don’t see how that will change anything for Herro in itself. Until his role and how he gets his shot is specifically addressed, nothing else will make a difference because those factors aren’t a factor in this.

I also wanted to see some other player comps that are around in his role or players that I’d like to see him play more like:

There are two different kind of players here. There are the more ball dominant guards that are primary or secondary ball handler as their role — Derrick White, Bradley Beal, CJ McCollum, Coby White, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Monk, Austin Reaves. Then, there are also the primary off-ball players — Duncan Robinson, Norman Powell, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Klay Thompson, Gary Trent Jr, Donte DiVincenzo.

Let’s compare some of the stats to those 13 players(7 ball handlers, 6 off-ball players:

• C&S freq: 12/13 lowest, 6/7, 6/6
• PU 2pt freq: 1/13 highest, 1/7, 1/6
• PU 3pt freq: 3/13 highest, 2/7, 2/6
• Less than 10ft freq: 8/13 lowest, 6/7, 2/6

His off the catch numbers are way too low compared to anyone, even the ball handlers. His career high in his rookie season still would rank 9th. That just can’t be a thing. That isn’t dependent on anything else than him, considering Robinson is on the same team.

Another difference when being compared to the ball handlers is that his shots within 10ft isn’t to their standard(though it was in the 2022 season).

This is where the disconnect is with Herro. Based on his strengths and where he could have his highest impact, it is closer to the first group. He’s closer to guys that have the ball in their hands less than 2 min per game than the guys who have over 4 min. But “his” approach to where he’s maximised is in the other group.

Many fans would probably say that pushing him to the off-ball group is stunting his growth, boxing him in, or not using his skillset as well as you should. But the reality is that his skillset as an on-ball player is inefficient and though there are ways to help that(more 3s, less pull up 2s), there’s still a ceiling there. The better alternative is simply to be a too good off-ball player.

Relating to this, this was a conversation I had here, when it comes to role players vs floor raisers where those role players have a skillset that “adds” to other players — it doesn’t take things away when they’re being maximized. Maximizing this current Herro does take shots away from others in favour for inefficient looks. Maximizing him does mean putting the ball in his hands when that doesn’t result in great stuff. Whereas, role players use their skill to complement others. Maximizing them makes life easier elsewhere by spacing, off-ball movement, making the offense flow etc.

His profile and touches need to resemble the first group of players and that’s not a slight at him. It’s not holding him back. There will be opportunities for him to still have the ball, it just can’t be at that volume. It at least can’t be that big of a difference. There are 69 players that attempt 4 or more C&S shots, but he’s 64th in C&S frequency.

That’s where the sacrifice comes from. It’s fully committing yourself to move off ball(because he hasn’t been a good off-ball player). Even after the Terry Rozier trade and that players’ meeting, his C&S frequency jumped to 28.4. “That” sacrifice is nothing. There isn’t a reason for him to not be at least in the 30s and ideally near 40s. That alone can change a lot for him and the team.

So, going back to the initial point. I don’t see how having a better, engaged Butler will change this, but it does need to change regardless. All of this is independent on the team’s context because what stopped Robinson from being used in the way Herro was being used when he missed 40 games? Why was Robinson still able to play his efficient game? All of this is simply on Herro and he just hasn’t shown that willingness in any season yet after his rookie year.

Grading the Off-Season So Far

So, we’re almost in August. It’s been a near month with free agency and off-season. We had the draft, the first round of the main free agency moves, and the summer league is finished. Things are starting to settle down for a bit at the moment.

Let’s see how the Heat have done so far with their off-season:

• Re-signed Kevin Love
• Re-signed Thomas Bryant
• Extended Bam Adebayo
• Extended Haywood Highsmith
• Drafted Kel’el Ware
• Drafted Pelle Larsson
• Signed Josh Christopher to a 2-way
• Signed Keshad Johnson to a 2-way
• Signed Dru Smith to a 2-way
• Signed Alec Burks
• Departed: Caleb Martin, Patty Mills, Orlando Robinson

Those are the moves the Heat have made so far.

If I were to give them a grade, it would be C+. It’s essentially running it back because I’m not seeing two rookies, two undrafted 2-ways, and Alec Burks as anything significant.

For the second straight season, the off-season is looking like let’s bank on internal development and hope we’re healthy. It’s still not addressing any of the concerns that have shown up in each season.

Obviously, seeing as the only way to get better is to face hard decisions about the team and try to work out trades, it does take two teams to do a trade. Without reopening all the past stuff, this is just their own fault that they’re still in this situation where they think their best is to just keep things as they are.

And without those trades, without being aggressive in looking to make a significant move to address their needs, I don’t see how their off-season can be anything other than okay.

Banking on internal growth when you’re not that close to competing isn’t a good off-season. The Celtics running back, the Nuggets running, or the Bucks running back is more of a reasonable approach. With the Heat, running it back for the second time after being in the play-in isn’t.

The only thing that’s saving them is the draft being spot on and the undrafted players. Right now, the whole draft and prospects has been spot-on in a vacuum. It looks like they picked the best(or at least most ready) big of the draft. And the other prospects all showed a lot that they could see some rotation minutes.

Outside of that… it’s pretty much nothing. And the only way that would decide how you feel about the off-season is how you feel about the team in general. If you were high on this team overall and believe they only needed health, then adding rookies that could be impactful in limited minutes and internal growth, then this can seen as a good off-season. If you weren’t high on this team and thought this team needed a lot more, then running it back with the same core does nothing to you — I’m in the latter camp.

The biggest positive, though, is locking up Adebayo. Let’s not even entertain the idea of him not being secured. That does feel like it takes some weight off in the near future.

The biggest negative so far for me is that we still have the usual three player core. I was almost convinced that this wasn’t going to be a thing. I was so certain that we’d finally see the end of that and try something else. I hoped that they’d commit to pulling the trigger and trade Herro for any role players that would fit better on both ends. Because at this point, I do think that whole conversation has been so tested by the team and the fans, that moving on is the best option.

Maybe this all can change in the next couple of months(fingers crossed), but it’s likely that it wont, so right now, their off-season is just slightly above average.