Simply Ballin’s 2022 Most Valuable Player

I’ve decided to make my most valuable player case separate to the other awards I wrote about recently. I wanted to go more in-depth for each of the top-3 candidates for this award.

It should be clear which three players are the ones in the running: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Nikola Jokic.

I don’t believe anyone else has a case to win the award — there are plenty of players that had an amazing season but weren’t on those 3 level.

These players include: Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, Luka Doncic, and Jayson Tatum. Depending on what’s your definition of in the conversation, these are the next bunch of players outside the top tier.

Before diving into the individual cases, let’s go over some of my criteria. Everything matters to me to some extent:

• Statistical dominance — box-score, tracking stats and impact metrics
• Eye test — film evidence is always needed, so I have taken the time to go back and watch some of the key games from each player
• Narratives — this is still a media award; narratives matter and they should to some extent
• Availability — this is mostly used if there is a clear advantage (e.g. one player has 75+ games and the other has 50)
• Team success with context — wins matter and how successful the team is when the player is on the court matters

Now that you know what my criteria is, let’s to each player’s case and the winner will be decided at the end.

Nikola Jokic

I don’t understand the hate some of the fans have against Jokic — except for the Miami Heat for good reasons. Speaking from purely a basketball point, there is zero reason to not think he’s at least a top-3 player in the world.

On March 29th, ESPN released a straw poll for the MVP. Though he did lead the poll with 62 first-place votes, three people still thought, nope, he’s fifth. And there are some people — Nick Wright — that are still completely against Jokic.

One of the main arguments against him — though completely stupid and wrong — is that he only has a case because of advanced stats. That’s flat-out wrong.

And even if that were the case, as much as you hate analytics, there should be some truth in the stats if he leads 90% of all metrics available.

But without going beyond a simple box-score, here are his stats per 75 possessions:

29.7 points | 15.1 rebounds | 8.7 assists | 65.2% from 2pt | 66.1% true shooting

Do you know how many players score this much while still dishing out dimes left, right, and center, and doing it on this efficiency? Just Jokic.

There is a good case that Jokic is the best offensive player in the league. He’s a monster from anywhere on the court, per NBA Stats:

• 71.9% in the restricted area
• 60.9% in the paint
• 53.5% in the mid-range

There is not a single spot on the court that he can’t score from. And there is almost no playtype that he struggles with.

He is scoring 1.17 points per possession on 5.2 post-ups. This mark is the best among players with at least 3 post-ups. Per BBall-Index, he also has a 61.5% eFG on 6.8 isolation possessions per 75.

This is how elite of a scorer he is. Surprisingly, though, this may not even be his best skill.

He is one of the best playmakers in the league and arguably the best passer. There probably isn’t a pass that he can’t make.

Here are some playmaking stats per BBall-Index:

• 8.2 high value assists
• 14.9 box creation
• 96th percentile in passing creation
• 98th in passing efficiency
• 99th in passing versatility

I saw a tweet talking about how Joel Embiid gets doubled more than Jokic, who wasn’t even on the list. This is why.

There is no plan to double Jokic because he will find the open man before the extra defender even bothers him. And you can also run a pick-and-roll with Jokic running the show.

His ability to make the toughest passes in the smallest window combined with his no-look, bullet-fast, snappy decisions, and his the most dangerous guy on the court at all times.

There is nothing he can’t do on the offensive end. Here’s a complete breakdown from Ben Taylor on Jokic’s offensive game. Also, per Cleaning the Glass (CTG), the Denver Nuggets have a 118.5 offensive rating with him on the court, which would be the number one offense.

Before you go on about his defense, although he isn’t the defensive player of the year conversation or even All-Defensive, he’s not one of the worst defenders either.

You can’t make a case that he’s hurting his team on defense. He has made improvements on that end to at least be average.

Now, let’s see how all of this translates to team success. Per CTG, the Nuggets have a plus 9.0 net rating with him on the court and this is elite considering who he has around him.

It’s no surprise that the the Nuggets have a minus 10.6 net rating when he sits.

Everything he has done — improved his shooting, defense, playmaking — was without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

Last year the Nuggets with both Jokic and Murray were plus 11.8. That’s barely a 2 point difference from what he’s doing now.

And most of it is down to Jokic. He has carried this team. Although people will use the fact that the team is the 6th seed, let me remind you that this record is only three wins less than the other candidates.

Joel Embiid

I didn’t expect this from Embiid considering the whole Ben Simmons situation. I wasn’t expecting the Philadelphia 76ers to be this good this season — though that obviously changed since James Harden arrived.

He has had his best year yet and was one of the most dominant players in the league. Just look at these numbers (stats per 75):

33.8 points | 12.9 rebounds | 4.6 assists | 52.9% 2pt | 61.6% true shooting

He’s the leagues leading scorer and has been on a tear for a few months.

• Most 40pt games
• Most 30pt games
• Most 30pt double doubles
• First center to average 30ppg since 1982

There are many, many more accomplishments.

He’s taken his game to another level from last year, where he also was second in MVP voting. Jackson Frank went through his improvements couple months back, which I recommend reading it.

He’s been deadly from the mid-range — shooting 42.4% on 5.8 attempts, which would be fifth in the league.

Go against him one-on-one and he will post-up, hit you with the mid-range, or will get you with the rip-through foul — he’s attempting the most free-throws per game and shooting 81%.

Before, if you sent a double, more times than not, you may cause a turnover or force him into a tough shot. Now, he’s an improved playmaker and will make you pay if you send extra help.

The Philadelphia 76ers are plus 7.9 when he’s on the court and also would have a 109.0 defensive rating, which would rank fourth in the league.

Similar to Jokic, the team’s numbers plummet when he goes to bench — the team is minus 3.4 without him. Even if James Harden is on the court, the team has a minus 11.6 rating.

Despite all the talk regarding Simmons, not having a full team, and the supporting cast struggling at times, the 76ers are still a top team in the East.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

We honestly must have gotten bored, tired, or used to what Giannis is doing.

How many players will you see average these numbers (stats per 75):

32.7 points | 12.7 rebounds | 8.5 assists | 61.6% 2pt | 63.3% true shooting

And this is without mentioning his DPOY calibre defense.

You know what you’re mostly getting from him on the offensive end.

He’s one of the best players in transition — good luck stopping him once he gets downhill and there’s no wall to stop him. He’s averaging a league-high 7.4 (27.6% frequency) possessions in transition and is scoring 1.14 PPP.

Out of the 53 players with at least 10 drives per game, he is shooting the best at 60.8%, as well as having the highest foul-drawn percentage.

It’s no coincidence he’s attempting the most attempts in the restricted area while shooting 76.6% and being second in free-throw attempts — which his percentages has also improved from 68.5% to 72.2%.

We know that he’s one of the most physically dominant players in the league, but what he’s shown this season is the constant improvement he’s making.

I’ve been watching more Milwaukee Bucks game in the past month or so and his improvements have stood out. Mark Schindler recently went through some of it too, which you should also check out.

For starters, he has improved his mid-range significantly. He’s shooting 41.5% on 3.1 attempts — that is better than Pascal Siakam, Nikola Vucevic, Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, and Tyler Herro. That is a jump from 35.7%.

Digging deeper into his shooting, he has made improvements all around. His pull-up 2pt increased from 36.1% on 3.0 attempts to 42.1 on 3.9 attempts. His catch-and-shoot 3pt increased from 23.1% on 0.6 to 34.5% on 0.8 — baby steps.

Even going beyond than the numbers, you can see the confidence he has now and the willingness to take those shots. Whilst watching the game against the 76ers, he looked good taking those fadeaway jumpers from the post.

In previous years, you can make the wall and force him into uncomfortable shots. This year, though, it doesn’t seem like he’s uncomfortable with them. Also a fun stat! His percentage of points in the paint has been slowly decreasing over the past four seasons: 63% → 59% → 59% → 53%.

It’s not just his scoring that took a leap. Per BBall-Index, his playmaking talent has improved in each of the last three seasons.

He’s been making great reads whenever the defense came to double or any defensive rotations happened. But he’s also seems better making a snappier pass whenever he’s attacking the rim.

In addition to all of his offensive repertoire, he has still been playing on a DPOY calibre player.

This year was a bit different than most years because of Brook Lopez missing time. Giannis had to adapt and provide whatever the team needed him to do. As Dan Devine said on his All-NBA picks, Giannis had to play free safety, man the middle, or guard on the ball.

Even without Lopez, the Bucks with Giannis on the court had a 110.2 defensive rating, good for 6th place. And if you isolate just the minutes where he played center, the defensive rating is 108.2.

He’s still one of the best weak-side rim protectors and all the stats still put him as one of the best defenders. Opponents shoot 52.9% from less than 6ft, which is 11.2% worse than the average, per NBA Stats.

The Bucks still are plus 8.1 with him on the court, which is elite.

And the Winner is

All three players have their unique case and a significant argument as to why they should be the winner, but after going through my criteria, the 2022 MVP is…

Nikola Jokic.

In the end, I made my mind that it came down to either him or Giannis — I enjoyed Embiid’s season, but he’s had the worst case in comparison to these two.

Giannis did make significant improvements to his overall game and there is a strong case that he is the best player in the world or at least the best all-around player. He’s got the stats, dominant on both ends, team success, the story, but I believe Jokic still edges him out.

Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton played a total of 47 games and 783 minutes together. Those are two great players to have. Now, who were Jokic’s two best players? Aaron Gordon and Monte Morris?

Jokic has put up one of the greatest offensive numbers ever, became the only player with 2000 thousand points, 1000 rebounds, and 500 assists, had one of the most efficient shooting seasons with this usage, carried his team to 48 wins all without an all-star or even all-star calibre player.

And he still managed to have the best on-court rating. That is absurd.

There is no wrong or right answer here, but Jokic’s incredible offensive dominance with the team that he has — and also the fact that he played more games, 18th in total minutes, 2nd in total field goals made, and 6th in total assists — is ridiculous to me.‍

Originally published at https://www.simplyballin.com.