NBA 2023 Southwest Division Preview

Victor, Rockets’ vets, Mavericks’ defense, Pelicans’ health & Grizzlies’ offensive growth

The NBA season is almost here. It’s that time of year when it’s so close that you just can’t wait for it to start because it’s been far too long now without NBA basketball.

So, for the next week or so, here are the division previews. In each preview, I’ll be going through some of the main questions for each team and discussing what’s in store in the upcoming season.

Today, we’re going through the southwest division:

• Victor Wembanyama’s rookie season
• The young core and the vets in Houston
• HEALTH in Zion Williamson
• A full season with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving
• Surviving without Ja Morant and growth from everyone else

San Antonio Spurs

The basketball gods seem to love the Spurs. They literally traded their best player in Dejounte Murray last year to fully tank and It’s only been four seasons with them missing the playoffs(the longest stretch in franchise history. They never went more than one season without the playoffs before). And yet, it’s looking likely that this will end soon.

I don’t think they will have much of a chance this season, but they’re setting themselves up to be in the mix real soon.

All of that is possible because of them getting blessed in the draft that only had a generational talent in Wembanyama. This is a type of selection that can change the trajectory of the franchise.

The potential is clearly there. There are valid reasons why he had the hype that he got. Though, I don’t expect that to translate right off the bat. Even past all-time rookies haven’t had such an elite impact in their first years to carry a bad team.

I expect a lot of growing pains from him. I don’t envision him being an all-star or even much in the conversation. Though his defense will be interesting to see. We have seen rookies have an immediate impact on that end(hello, Evan Mobley)

And that’s the main thing. The Spurs as a team are still not near competing even for a play-in spot. Per Cleaning the Glass, they were dead last in net rating with minus 9.9(a big drop off from the previous seasons). I don’t think they’ve gotten better outside of some internal growth and Wembanyama, of course.

But that shouldn’t matter as much in their season as a whole. They can have a successful season even if they have a similar record again. The focus is on the young guys and Wembanyama getting used to the NBA.

Outside of him, there are a number of players to watch out for.

Keldon Johnson took another scoring leap in averaging a career-high 23.7 points per 75 possessions on 55.1% TS. The efficiency took a bit of a dip from last year, but that makes sense considering he went from 21.3% usage to 27.9%. Over eight percent increase and only having minimal drop off in efficiency is pretty good.

Digging deeper, He’s creating more 2s for himself with just over 50% being assisted(down from the 60s in the previous three years) and more is at the rim. That’s encouraging as a scorer.

We also have Devin Vassell, who just signed a 135 million extension for five years. A 23-year-old who averaged 21.1 points per 75 on 55.0% TS. He shot 38.7% on over seven attempts!

That’s two guys being decent scorers.

Beyond that, this is a young team that has good young players but probably isn’t anything special. They have 13 players that have only three years of experience or less.

This team will again be all about youth, growing, and playing through a lot of mistakes. I wouldn’t be surprised if they again finished with one of the worst records in the league. It’s just too early for them.

There aren’t many questions about their season or the direction they’re going at either. They’re rebuilding. Don’t currently have a core of young players that are expected to make a leap to legitimate stars. But they do have Wembanyama. And that’s what the season is about. It’s about player development, especially his.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets had an interesting off-season. They added a bunch of guys: Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jock Landale, Jeff Green, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, and hired Ime Udoka.

That’s a lot of changes… but I like it.

This has been the Rockets’ net, offensive, and defensive rating over the last three years:

• -8.6(29th), 111.0(27th), 119.7(29th)
• -9.1(30th), 108.7(26th), 117.8(30th)
• -8.4(27th), 107.7(27th), 116.1(27th)

That’s quite a stretch. They just haven’t clicked on anything. The offense was bad and the defense was just non-existent.

There’s a reason why the players they brought are also probably the best defenders they had in many years. It’s also their age that matters. They made a clear decision to get veterans and that’s what they did.

Even though these rebuilding teams should be focusing on the young players and their growth, having a veteran presence and a better system is also needed for each player’s development. There won’t be as much growth in a system that doesn’t have much of a system.

That’s what a guy like VanVleet will bring. A capable ball handler who is capable of running stuff. In the last two years, the Toronto Raptors had a 115.9 offense with him in almost five thousand minutes — that dropped to 112.5 without him.

These are his playmaking stats compared to on-ball players:

And these are some of the Rockets players:

That’s a big difference. That’s exactly what the Rockets need. This should help everyone on the team. From the guards not being forced into that role and play-finishers that will benefit from better guard play. This will allow someone like Jalen Green to play more off-ball and that could help him a lot in his development.

Then you have someone like Brooks to bring that defensive intensity. That type of presence is crucial too. There needs to be better habits being built on both ends for the young guys in Houston.

But as important as these two acquisitions were, this is still all about the young guys. This is still about Green, Jabari Smith Jr, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson. That’s a pretty good core — all very talented on the offensive end. They have three top-5 draft picks there too.

Talent is clearly there. And with the addition of the vets and a new coach, this could be what they all need to take that leap.

How will Smith look in a better role? He had an underwhelming rookie season but that can change with a second-year leap in a different role with a better point guard and a different coach.

Green is entering his third year. He already has one of the best skills that’s needed as a scorer and that’s rim pressure. This season, he ranked 13th amongst on-ball players in rim shot creation per BBall-Index and 22nd in unassisted shots at the rim. The issue is with his finishing, ranking only in the 43rd percentile in rim shot making but that is an improvement from his rookie year.

What’s also encouraging, he ranked in the 75th percentile in fouls drawn and isolation foul drawn rate and 94th in drive foul drawn rate. That’s impressive and it’s only getting better.

The question will be how he’s going to fit alongside VanVleet and whether he’s good enough off-ball to still have an impact.

I wonder how possible a leap is. The vets can provide enough push to win now and with the young players taking a leap, that could be enough to make a push for the play-in.

It will also be interesting to see how they’ll balance the rotations. Will they favor the vets more and have the young guys prove it? That seems to be the most likely option given them going after these players in the first place.

Overall, I liked this off-season from the Rockets. They had three years of being bad with little to no growth as the team across seasons. Maybe this change is enough to spark something that will speed up the development.

The young core should be even better this year. There’s a lot that can change when the team has a completely different system and has decent players at important positions. That’s enough to transform this team.

Nevertheless, I see their goals still focusing on developing the young guys but with a bit higher emphasis on winning and building those good habits.

New Orleans Pelicans

I have no idea what to make of the Pelicans. For the last few years, their biggest question mark has been health. And heading into this season, their biggest question mark is, ah yes, health again.

They were the number one seed on December 12th with an 18–8 record. They were still top-3 with a 26–18 record on January 17th. That’s over half the season's worth of sample size of being top-3. That’s significant.

At that time, they had a 116.0 offense(8th) and a 112.1 defense(5th). That’s impressive.

But the issue comes with health. With Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, and Brandon Ingram, they had a plus 14.9 net rating with a 122.5 offense(whilst shooting only 34% from 3 and only had a 24% 3pt rate). This offense could’ve been even better with more shooting.

However with those stats also comes that question mark. That’s only a 172-minute sample. This year they played only 12 games together — 93 games since Williamson got drafted. That’s concerning.

And that’s the key to everything. There’s nothing to show what this team even is. That little sample isn’t enough to know how much of their offense was real. Even if it was negative, that still would be the same thing. It’s tough to build any type of chemistry playing so little together.

I know that it may seem like lazy analysis, but this is a big deal and there’s not much that you can take away from the Pelicans going forward until they show what they are.

We know what they are individually. We know what a force Williamson is. He’s their best player and everything hinges on his ability to stay healthy. In each of his seasons, he has gotten more and more efficient — that’s with the Pelicans’ spacing.

However, I still have questions about the overall fit of this team with Williamson. What does the frontcourt look like with him? When it comes to the big, with Jonas Valanciunas, they’re plus 2.2 in 476 minutes. Take Valanciunas off and that number skyrockets to plus 12.0 in 480 minutes. That’s not saying they need to trade Valanciunas or that they can’t play together but that’s not maximising the team.

The next question is with Ingram. He just had a career year in scoring and has grown a lot as a passer. But I still have concerns with him being the primary guy. A lot of it has to do with his shot distribution, lack of rim pressure, and not being as efficient.

In his time with the Pelicans, he’s been hovering around average in true shooting. That’s not what you want when it comes to your number one option(though that would change with a fully healthy Williamson). In each year with the Pelicans, he’s taking more and more 2s and dropping his volume from 3 but that doesn’t make much sense if he’s not shooting a much better percentage from 2.

Although I’d have Williamson as their best player, Ingram is the primary ball handler, and that inefficiency matters even if he’s a number 2.

Outside of those two, I worry about their spacing with there only being two volume shooters that get that kind of respect. And to make matters worse, they’ll be without Trey Murphy to start the season. That loss is going to hurt.

I really don’t know how to feel about them going forward because a lot of it is how they could work with a limited sample size. Sure, in theory and on paper it may all work, but it’s tough to draw any conclusions.

Before, I used to be higher on the Pelicans but right now it’s going to be a lot of prove it before I make any decisions. Their season, as it has been for four years, depends entirely on the health of their two best players.

Dallas Mavericks

From conference finals to not making the playoffs. I don’t know how many could’ve predicted that. But when looking at their differences in 2022 and now, it kind of becomes clear.

Firstly, there was a significant drop-off on the defensive end and I think that was the reason for such a collapse. In 2022, they were seventh on defense. Before Kristaps Porzingis got injured and traded, they were top-five. Even after Porzingis played his last game, they were eighth.

That all changed in this season. Even before the Kyrie Irving trade, they were 24th on defense and 26th after the trade. A bottom-five defense even if you have a top-five offense is not a good recipe for winning.

But after losing Jalen Brunson, there was also a need to help Luka Doncic on offense. Prior to trading for Irving, without Doncic, they were minus 5.7 with a 108.6 offense — it was 120.4 with him and they were plus 3.9.

That’s where the Irving trade came in. They needed another guy that help the Mavericks survive on offense without Doncic and also help him with the load when he’s on. And it worked! With Irving on and Doncic off, the Mavericks were plus 7.6 with a 126.5 offense! It was only 319 minutes and there’s some 3-point shooting noise but it’s still a good sign. Even with both on, they were plus 3.3 with a 121.4 offense.

The trade worked exactly what it was meant to do. The issue is they made their defense even worse. Do you see how they were only a plus 7 with a 126 offense? That’s because they almost had a 120 defense.

That’s what you get by going all on offense. There was no other option that they could’ve gone to to help the defense.

So, that’s going to be the question for the Mavericks. There are still questions about the offense with both Irving and Doncic. There are always going to be questions about Doncic’s ability to play off-ball and with other ball handlers. As well as Doncic’s offensive load that has him gassed in the fourth.

But as much as that could be an issue, I think it’s fair to say that the offense is likely to work itself out and that there are other biggest problems.

In the off-season, they traded for Grant Williams and drafted both Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Propser. All three players should help on that end. They finally get a better(probably starting) center. They won’t have to rely on guys like JaVale McGee anymore.

Sam Vecenie noted in his draft guide that he was the best rim protector in college basketball and was probably the most impactful overall defensive force. That’s going to be key.

This is why I loved the Williams trade. That’s the kind of player that they need, especially with trading Dorian Finney-Smith last season. He can replicate that on both ends and he should thrive on this team.

That’s what this team will go down to.

How will the duo of Doncic and Irving look like with more chemistry and more time to work things through? That could be a dangerous duo. And if we see what we saw from Doncic in FIBA basketball playing more off-ball, then this could be even better.

More importantly, it will be about everyone’s effort on defense. Can they be just average on defense? Those three players mentioned above plus Josh Green entering his fourth season, Maxi Kleber, and Derrick Jones Jr, all can provide something on defense. And that’s what will raise their ceiling. That’s going to be the determining factor.

Memphis Grizzlies

It’s going to be tough to assess their season going forward for at least the first 25 games. It makes sense for that to be the number one question.

How will the Grizzlies survive without Ja Morant?

Well, in the last two years, the Grizzlies are 31–15 when Morant doesn’t play. They’re plus 7 with a 116 offense and 109 defense. When you include both Jaren Jackson Jr and Desmond Bane, they are plus 11 in 789 minutes.

I will go out and say I think they’ll do just fine with Morant.

Now, that also doesn’t mean the Grizzlies are better without him or that he doesn’t have much impact. It’s just the way the team is constructed and how they win games, I can definitely see this trend continue — especially since they traded for Marcus Smart.

So, just to get that out of the way. I don’t think the Grizzlies will suffer much without Morant. They’re good enough to have this team in a comfortable situation until he gets back.

And when they’re fully healthy with everyone back, I do like this team a lot.

One main thing to look forward to is the growth on offense from both Bane and Jackson Jr, especially in the time without Morant.

In those 46 games without Morant over the last two years, Bane is averaging 23.8 points per 75 on 57.5% eFG and 60.4% TS with a 25.7% usage. He’s shooting over 45% on 10 attempts. He’s an elite shooter. What’s even more impressive is he attempts over 6 shots at the rim and over 5 shots in the short mid-range. That’s developing into a true 3-level scorer. The passing isn’t just there yet, though, but as a scorer, he can carry that load. These numbers also get better when just doing this year when Morant isn’t on the floor.

When it comes to Jackson Jr, he’s a clear defensive player caliber player. There’s some needed improvement there(as shown in FIBA), especially when it comes to being the 5 on defense. But a lot for him will come down on the offensive end. We’ve seen some growth as a scorer in the playoffs already.

The leap he’s made on offense in just a year is wild:

• 21.4 → 23.4 points per 75
• 53.5% → 61.3% TS
• 21.8% → 30.4% percentage of shots at the rim
• 61.5% → 70.4% at the rim
• 39.5% → 49.6% within 3–10ft

And in the playoffs, he’s shown significant growth when it comes to creating his own shot in the post and on drives — 39.3% of his 2s were assisted in the playoffs compared to 59.5% in the regular season.

This is all just going to get better from these two and a lot of this team’s ceiling will depend on that, as the team struggled with their half-court offense.

We know what Morant is going to do. I’m not that high on Morant, though. I think there are clear limitations to his game in the playoffs and there’s only so much impact you can have as a slasher with a limited shot and not great finishing inside.

But that matters less when the team around him is so good.

Getting Steven Adams is going to be huge for them. For the season, they were 22nd in defensive rebound percentage with 71.8%. With Adams on, that jumped to 75.1%. That’s where Jackson’s issues on defense come in. But with both on, the team is elite. They dominate on both ends of the floor on the glass. In 399 minutes, they were plus 13 with those two on.

Another big piece is Smart. They lost Dillon Brooks, but overall, I think they get better with Smart instead(which also helps them after losing Tyus Jones).

Smart gives them another ball-handler and another A+ defender who can do so many things you ask him to. That helps with having more defensive versatility. His passing should also help anytime they’re without Morant.

These are both Smart’s and Jones’ passing stats compared to on-ball players. That’s a significant upgrade in that area for them.

Then you add Luke Kennard’s elite shooting and a whole bunch of players that they can use — Santi Aldama, Ziaire Williams, Xavier Tillman, and Brandon Clarke.

I expect this team to again be at the top in the regular season. And when it comes to the playoffs, a lot will hinge on the offensive growth of Bane and Jackson. If they’re fully healthy with Adams, the defense is going to be there, it will just be their offense that has some question marks going forward.