NBA 2021–22 Team Predictions

The NBA is back! After what seems like forever, we finally have NBA basketball. And though a day late, as we already had the opening night, let’s go through the standings and make team predictions.

I love making predictions because it is just fun even though I’m mostly always wrong. Having just looked at my last year’s predictions, it’s funny seeing only a few of the predictions being correct. So, hopefully, this year will be better or at least closer.

Season Standings

1. Milwaukee Bucks
2. Brooklyn Nets
3. Miami Heat
4. Boston Celtics*
5. Atlanta Hawks*
6. Philadelphia 76ers*
7. Chicago Bulls
8. New York Knicks
9. Toronto Raptors
10. Indiana Pacers
11. Washington Wizards
12. Charlotte Hornets
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
14. Orlando Magic
15. Detroit Pistons

Let’s start from the top. As we are still not sure what the hell is going to happen with Kyrie Irving and there will obviously be load management, the Nets won’t be going all out for the regular season. Now, that doesn’t mean they will be cruising through and not care at all. Even if Irving doesn’t play, James Harden and Kevin Durant can and will carry this team to the second seed.

This leaves the second-best team in the conference ready for the top seed. The Bucks have always been one of the most dominant teams in the regular season. In the last three seasons, they had a 63.9%, 76.7%, and 73.2% win percentage.

The biggest jump from last season are the Heat. This may be a controversial pick to most people seeing as the Heat were almost a play-in team and barely made the sixth seed. They have made changes, however, and barring injuries, this team should be dangerous in the regular season. People might have forgotten that the team last year had a similar record to the Nets and Bucks with Butler playing. At the same time, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Heat fall down to that 4–6 range.

The next three spots are all for grabs. I don’t see any of those teams as significantly better than another. I want to say the Celtics will be the better team, but that will also depend on what the hell is going to happen with Ben Simmons. That is what it all comes down to; everything depends on if he’s staying or what package they will get.

The play-in teams are pretty set. Maybe the Bulls could make a push for a top-6 seed, but that is a maybe and the only maybe from the rest of the teams. They have added many players: Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, and Alex Caruso. That is a great help for Zach LaVine, who I believe will have one of the best seasons this year. They did just go undefeated in the pre-season, so who knows?

I’m not a Knicks believer; I’m not falling for Julius Randle and Kemba Walker. The Pacers are going to be the Pacers and stay mediocre. I do like the Raptors; OG Anunoby is a MIP candidate, I’m high on Pascal Siakam and they still have one of the best coaches in Nick Nurse.

The bottom of the East doesn’t seem like teams that could make a big push or ones that you can make a case over another team. It will still be exciting to see the new Wizards and Bradley Beal continuing from his great offensive season. The rest of the teams are all either rebuilding or up-and-coming young teams.

1. Utah Jazz
2. Denver Nuggets
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Golden State Warriors
5. Phoenix Suns
6. Los Angeles Clippers
7. Portland Trail Blazers
8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Memphis Grizzlies
10. New Orleans Pelicans
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
12. Sacramento Kings
13. San Antonio Spurs
14. Houston Rockets
15. Oklahoma City Thunder

Forget about what you’ve seen in the playoffs. The Jazz are a great team. There is a reason why they had the highest point differential with plus 11.3 with the Clippers second at plus 6.8. They were the only team that had a top-3 offense and defense (3rd and 1st). That’s another reason you need to forget about the playoffs. After the Clippers series, many people blamed Rudy Gobert’s defense, but that’s just stupid, especially when it comes to the regular season. The Jazz have ranked 1st, 11th, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on defense in the last five years.

I am banking on another great offensive season from Nikola Jokic. Having just won the MVP averaging 28.3 points, 11.6 rebounds, 8.9 assists on 64.7% true shooting per 75 possessions, I believe we are going to see a better Jokic. The Nuggets will have to rely on Jokic carrying the offensive load, especially with Jamal Murray being out, but that is not something I worry about. That is because of Michael Porter Jr. He just had one of the most efficient seasons ever and he’s only going to get better and this could be his breakout year.

Despite having a bad loss last night to the Warriors, I’m high on the Lakers for many reasons. LeBron James and Anthony Davis actually had an off-season and we know that matters a lot. But now that they are both fully-rested, we get to see that James is still James even in his old age. Russell Westbrook is also the reason why I’m high on them. Every James-led team struggled with him on the bench, but Westbrook is one of the best floor raisers and can carry the bench to wins with James resting. It will be interesting to see how this team fits, though.

The next three seeds can all go either way. I do like the Suns; I mean they did just make the finals, but I don’t think I’m as high on them in the regular season. The Warriors' season will depend on, whether there’s enough offensive help for Stephen Curry? If the answer is yes and Klay Thompson comes back healthy, then they are real contenders in the playoffs.

The Clippers would have been significantly higher if Kawhi Leonard was healthy, but even so, Paul George is still in that almost top-10 tier and is capable of playing at an MVP caliber level. The team had one of the best offenses and that should continue despite not having Leonard.

I can’t make up my mind about the Blazers or Mavericks. Both are led by one of the best offensive players in Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard. The Blazers made some changes to help improve their defense in acquiring Larry Nance Jr. But I also feel more comfortable in Doncic. It’s tough to pick, but ultimately I think the Blazers will have a better season because they have a better-supporting cast.

The other two teams in the play-in are ones I’m comfortable in securing those last two spots. The Grizzlies get Jaren Jackson Jr back and the improvement in Ja Morant after having a great first playoff experience. When it comes to the Pelicans, they will go as far as Zion Williamson. He is their best player and is already one of the best players in the league. Their defense needs to improve, but I’m comfortable with their offense being good enough to make the play-in.

I want to say the Wolves could also make the play-in push. The trio of Karl Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards played only 327 minutes and had a net rating of plus 5.3, so hopefully, we will get to see the stars healthy, and maybe they can make that push.

I like De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, but who else is there? They just had the worst defense in NBA history, which is quite alarming. The Spurs are finally in rebuild mode, which is still weird to even say. And the two teams at the bottom will be at the bottom but man, it will be exciting to see Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr, Josh Giddey, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander play.

None of these standings are set in stone, there are many teams that I see that could be much higher than I’ve put them and vice versa.

Playoff Predictions

Obviously, my heart wants to say the Heat vs the Nets in the conference finals but I should be objective. The favorites to make the conference finals are obviously the Bucks and the Nets, but as we have seen last year, that is not always the case. Injuries happen. Off-court issues happen.

So, my initial prediction is legitimate, but if I had to bet my money on it, you bet your ass I’m betting on the Heat to make the conference finals and make a push for the finals.

That team is built for the playoffs and people shouldn’t be surprised if they do make it. A trio of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry is a scary big three. You add an improved top-3 shooter in Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro who shouldn’t have his sophomore slump anymore and you get a contending team.

It is going to be tough. The Nets are a better team and if the Irving situation gets resolved, they should be the favorites to make the finals and potentially win. They are led by three offensive superstars, two of which are on a historic level. The Bucks are reigning champions and deserve that respect.

Outside of the two favorites and the Heat potentially upsetting one of them, I only see the Celtics or the 76ers maybe going deep in the playoffs.

The West is much more difficult to predict. There are more teams that could all be contending to make the finals. I can see any of these teams make the conference finals: Warriors, Nuggets, Jazz, Lakers, and Suns.

That is five teams that you can make a legitimate case. But to narrow it down, just slightly, my top-3 teams to make the conference finals are the Lakers, Warriors, and the Nuggets.

The Lakers should be in the conference finals, at least, barring any injuries. If they are fully healthy, then they will be the best team in the West by playoff time. The second team… that one is tough. It also depends on the health and how good Thompson is.

The trio of Draymond Green, Curry, and Thompson, even in 2021 should scare opponents. We have witnessed what Curry has left in him and it’s clear he can still carry the team, but he just needs a little bit more help.

Speaking of help, the Nuggets will have Jamal Murray by the playoffs. We all remember how Murray was when he last played in the playoffs. He was simply averaging 25.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 6.4 assists on 62.6% true shooting per 75 possessions. Having that type of player alongside a top-10 player and a MIP candidate will make some noise.

Ultimately, I’m going with the guy that proved he can win it all being the guy. The Warriors look good and once they get their core back, we will have a Curry vs James in the conference finals.

Finally, the finals will be the rematch between the Lakers and the Heat — a bit biased? Maybe, but oh well, these are my fun predictions.

And, of course, the champions are the Miami Heat.

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Originally published at https://www.simplyballin.com.