2nd Round Thoughts: Davis’ Paint Defense, 76ers' Offense, Suns’ Tough Shot Making

Here are some quick thoughts on the first two games from each series in the second round

7 min readMay 6, 2023

We’re finally onto the second round of the playoffs. I swear these playoffs are going fast and soon it’s going to be the finals. But it’s been great so far.

The first round was filled with historic performances. Just take a look at some of these stat lines:

Jimmy Butler: 56/9/2 on 19-for-28 shooting and 15-for-18 from the line
Stephen Curry: 50/8/6 on 20-for-38 shooting and 3-for-5 from the line
Devin Booker: 47/8/10 on 18-for-27 shooting and 5-for-6 from the line

There were 10 games with players scoring 40 points or more. For comparison, there were three last year — Butler, DeMar DeRozan, and Jalen Brunson.

Unfortunately, there was a couple of series that wasn’t as entertaining or dealt with injuries that took away what could have been a long fight.

But at least we still got to witness the Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors go seven games and also a wild upset with the Miami Heat defeating the Milwaukee Bucks in five games.

Now, we have more basketball to go through. So, let’s go through some key stuff that stood out in the first two games of each series.

Heat vs Knicks

There won’t be much analysis for this series here, because there’s plenty for you to check out at Miami Heat Beat:

So far, through two games, both teams have played each other with one of them missing a player. In the first game, the Knicks were without Julius Randle and after that the Heat were without Butler.

But if I’m the Heat, I’m encouraged going into tonight’s game. Game two without Butler was a game for the most part. They were right there able to win despite missing Butler, Knicks shooting 40% from 3, getting more free throws, and so many offensive rebounds.

So many things were going right for the Knicks and it still was a fight. Now, with Butler hopefully coming back for game, the Heat are in good position to take a 2–1 lead.

Laker vs Warriors

Two games. Two very different results. In the first game, the Los Angeles Lakers were in total control for most of the game until a late stretch in the fourth with the Warriors making a comeback. In the second game, however, by the time the third quarter finished, the Lakers were done.

One of the reasons for that was the huge discrepancy between points in the paint and getting to the line. The Lakers had 54 points in the paint to Warriors’ 28. And if you also add 20 more free throws made, that is hard to overcome even with the Warriors being hot from 3 going 21-for-53. Also, that’s a pretty big number. 53/106 of their shots were 3s.

But there’s a reason for that. The Warriors couldn’t to the rim. They struggled to enter the paint with Anthony Davis locking that place down. With both Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, Davis was able to man the paint and blow up any actions.

Davis is able to help off either Looney or Green allowing him to stay in the paint on the handoffs. The Lakers are then able to top-lock all of the off-ball screening actions without many consequences. The counter to being top locked is to back cut, but in this case, Davis is already in the paint taking those cuts away.

There wasn’t much else for the Warriors to do after that. And it seemed like the Lakers were comfortable dropping with Davis that deep against anyone not named Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson. But even against actions with those two, the coverage was still a high drop. And it worked. The Warriors made their 3s but it wasn’t enough.

They did have the chance to tie the game at the end which ended with a Jordan Poole very deep 3. Now, I don’t think I liked that shot very much considering there was still time on the clock and why was he taking from that deep?

It was different in game two and one of the reasons for that was inserting JaMychal Green into the starting lineup. That gives the Warriors another legitimate 3pt threat instead of two non-shooters. And the second reason was running more pick-and-rolls for Curry.

This action was able to generate more looks for the Warriors inside by being able to put the defense in rotations with Curry drawing two. Though, I’m not entirely sure why the Lakers decided to go with that coverage when there was no need for the change.

In game two, they did have the hot shooting, as they went 6-for-10 from the corners and 15-for-31 above the break. But they also went 24-for-46 inside the paint. That’s a pretty big difference compared to game one when they went 14-for-36. 10 more makes and 10 more attempts.

It will be interesting to see if the Warriors continue with both this lineup and this scheme on offense. If the Lakers continue with this aggressive coverage, then it makes sense even though it will likely result in less shots for Curry, but generate better looks elsewhere.

76ers vs Celtics

Now, I totally wasn’t expecting the Boston Celtics to lose at home in game one when Joel Embiid wasn’t playing, especially losing on defense.

There wasn’t anything that could have made me predict that the Philadelphia 76ers would’ve had a 133.7 offensive rating without Embiid. This ranks eighth highest for the 76ers this year.

One of the reasons for that was Harden cooking everywhere. He finished with 45 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists on 17-for-30 shooting with only 4-for-4 from the line. This felt like vintage Harden on display.

He was torching the defenses with his play in a PnR against the drop:

That raised a question for me. Why did the Celtics opt-in for such a defense against him? There wasn’t anyone else as dangerous with the ball as he. Not sure why there was a lot of drop and single coverage for him. They let him go 1v1 with seeing little help plenty of times.

But then the 76ers had trouble generating good offense against switches:

So, it was strange to see the Celtics constantly giving Harden the coverage that he was cooking, when there was little downside to them switching all of the actions.

On the other end, the Celtics got so many looks in transition. The 76ers had one of the worst transition defenses in this game:

The Celtics were pushing the pace off misses and makes. They went to get out early and get those looks at the rim. They are second in the playoffs with transition frequency and third in shot attempts.

Then there’s Jaylen Brown. I’ve been really impressed with his scoring, especially when it comes to getting to the rim.

He’s been able to get to the rim at will. Whether it’s in transition, in the half-court, off the dribble, 1v1, or off cuts. He’s taking 8.8 shots at the rim per 100 possession, which is a career-high. Only 41% of his shots are assisted too.

We also got to see some Harden-Embiid PnR and I don’t think that’s gone well:

The Celtics have done one hell of a job at sending help early in the paint to take both the drive and the roll away. Check that first clip with Harden driving right. He’s got three defenders stopping him. In the second clip, Embiid gets the ball on the roll but is also met by multiple defenders contesting his shot.

Suns vs Nuggets

I wonder how many people predicted that the Denver Nuggets would be up 2–0 against the Phoenix Suns and making it rather easy.

The Suns shot 59.0 percent from 2 and lost badly. That’s just math for you. Because they don’t take a lot of 3s and the Nuggets made a lot of them, it’s tough to overcome that. Living in the mid-range won’t get you far if that’s the only thing you can do.

No one is saying that you don’t need the mid-range or that what both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are doing isn’t effective, but that just can’t be the team’s shot diet in 2023. This team would have annihilated teams in the early 2010s with this offense.

And relying on only tough shots can be very hot or cold. It’s probably why they lost the game in the fourth. In the third quarter of that game, they made those tough shots:

They were going to those same spots whether off a PnR or isolation, they got to their usual spot and made their shots. That offense is great when the shots fall down. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen in the fourth:

Combine that with some questionable shot selection and poor decision-making, it’s just easy to get yourself out of a game because those same shots aren’t falling down. Relying on tough shot-making isn’t sustainable. Even the best of the best will struggle.

Their offense was also a lot going at Nikola Jokic in the PnR. Let’s start with the simplest one. Any Chris Paul PnR is defended in a drop:

The Nuggets will live with Paul taking those shots. Then there are these with Devin Booker:

Jokic will be showing at the level of the screen against both Booker and Kevin Durant to take away the drive and the pull-up. Booker doesn’t get a shot off in any of those clips but they still end up with a pretty good look.

The first and the second clip is what needs to happen more often. Booker comes off the screen and is able to find Durant in the corner on the skip pass.

These are the looks that the Suns have to first get and make. They won’t be able to outscore the Nuggets with tough shot-making.